SÃO PAULO, Brazil — The nation’s main stock exchange here forecast at the start of 2012 that 40 to 45 companies would hold initial public offerings to list their shares. Only three did.
“Very few transactions got done, and very few got done well,” said Fábio Nazari, head of equity capital markets at BTG Pactual. Many issuers encountered “very difficult conditions.”
Some of the lackluster performance can be chalked up to investors nervous about the global economy, but much also had to do with government policies in Brazil.
Last year, the country changed regulations and applied pressure to reduce consumer prices in several sectors, including retail banks and electricity utilities. Those measures may succeed in reducing consumer costs, but investors complained about lowered profit outlooks and accused the government of changing the rules in the middle of the game.
The government also used taxes and regulatory measures to weaken the currency in the first half of 2012. The value of the country’s currency, the real, fell more than 18 percent from March 1 to June 1, increasing uncertainty for foreign investors.
In Brazil, tough economic conditions also hung over the markets last year. In the first three quarters of 2012, the country’s gross domestic product rose only 0.7 percent. The Bovespa index was up 7.4 percent in 2012 — a healthy return but not the double-digit yearly gains it often had a few years ago.
Going into 2013, however, both government agencies and the private sector are taking steps to encourage start-ups and growth industries to raise financing through the public markets. In addition, analysts say, the most disruptive policy changes are already in place, so companies will find a more hospitable climate for stock offerings.
“We don’t foresee more big moves from the government,” Mr. Nazari said. “The past has been priced into valuations, and economic growth should pick up this year.”
Brazil has only 365 publicly traded companies, and they do not fully reflect the strength and diversity of the economy, the world’s seventh-largest. Commodities producers dominate the main stock index, even though industries that serve the country’s growing middle class are growing faster. But Mr. Nazari said at least 30 companies were ready to list in the next 12 to 18 months.
Two big stock offerings are already on tap to be listed on the BM&FBovespa, the main stock and futures exchange in Brazil.
Banco do Brasil, the state-controlled banking conglomerate, has announced that it intends to spin off its insurance operations into a new company, BB Seguridade, which would then hold an I.P.O. in the first half of 2013. The deal, if it goes through, could raise 5 billion reais.
And local investment banks say Votorantim Cimentos, Brazil’s largest cement producer, is preparing for an I.P.O. this year that would aim to raise 6 billion reais.
Investors may also turn to I.P.O.’s to seek better returns. After decades in which investors could buy short-term government bonds and earn double-digit returns, interest rates in Brazil have dropped. Most traditional fixed-income investments now hardly keep up with inflation.
Jean-Marc Etlin, chief executive of Itaú BBA Investment Bank, said that in an environment of relatively low interest rates, Brazilian investors had incentives to increase their stock market allocations, potentially creating demand for new companies.
Mr. Etlin also said there were thousands of Brazilian companies, mostly family owned, that could provide the basis for sustained activity.
“Brazil’s equity capital markets literally restarted just 10 years ago, with the first I.P.O. under new governance rules. We are still in the early stages,” he said.
Since Brazil’s first modern initial public offering in 2002, 70 percent of financing has come from foreign investors, so the market in the near term is dependent on global trends.
Brazil had a banner year in 2009, when companies raised nearly 46 billion reais on the public markets, according to the BM&FBovepsa (that figure includes I.P.O.’s and follow-on offerings, when companies issued additional shares). That year included I.P.O.’s of the bank Santander Brasil, which raised 13.2 billion reais, and the credit card operator Visanet, which raised 8.4 billion reais.
Renato Ejnisman, managing director of Bradesco BBI, Banco Bradesco’s investment banking division, said the market this year was not likely to return to 2009 levels, but “two or three times as many deals as in 2012 is pretty doable.”
Facundo Vazquez, head of Latin America equity capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said foreign institutional investors preferred larger deals because they were more easily traded on the public markets, while risk-averse investors were more comfortable putting money into big companies that dominated their sectors.
Conglomerates looking to spin off units will be “the sweet spot,” he predicted, as such operations are big deals with plenty of liquidity from well-known companies.
Mr. Nazari of BTG Pactual also said that bigger offerings attracted more interest. “Right now, it is easier to do a $2 billion deal than a $200 million one,” he said. “A lot of investors are sitting on cash, waiting for the new year and for opportunities.”
The government itself is taking measures to facilitate listings, although more for smaller offerings. The Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, Brazil’s main securities regulator, announced in November that it would consider, on a case-by-case basis, easing requirements for smaller I.P.O.’s.
The equity arm of the state-owned development bank BNDES has 108 billion reais invested in nearly 400 companies, some of which are publicly traded giants like Petrobras, but most of which are privately held.
The BNDES, short for Banco Nacional do Desenvolvimento (or the National Development Bank in English), said in October that it intended to encourage or even oblige its start-ups and other companies to hold I.P.O.’s or at least join the exchange’s access tier, Bovespa Mais.
The Bovespa Mais requires companies to meet the same governance requirements as public companies and to go public, with at least 25 percent of their shares listed, within seven years.
Linx, a midsize software firm in which the BNDES holds a 21.7 percent stake, filed paperwork with regulators at the end of December to hold an I.P.O. this year. Linx is expected to try to raise 500 million reais.
Both government and private sector entities are also working together to present by March a package of regulatory and tax measures to pave the way for smaller I.P.O.’s, though the measures probably would not be in place until 2014.
In general, the change in regulations and investor demand could finally help end Brazil’s drought in I.P.O.’s, analysts said.
“In 10 years or less, we could easily see the number of listed companies in Brazil double,” said Mr. Nazari of BTG Pactual.
